Riding profile

Orne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Orne

The question

Orne — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Orne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Orne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chantal JOURDAN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.5%
  • Left (NFP) 26.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.8%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereOrne — 1ère circonscription 39.0%28.5%26.4%2.0%
Provincial averageOrne 39.1% −0.1 15.3% +13.2 20.6% +5.9 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.0 20.6% +7.9 29.5% −3.0 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nadine BELZIDSKY RN and allies 15,783 35.2 —
Chantal JOURDAN Elected Left (NFP) 12,264 27.3 —
Patricia CHAPELOTTE Centre (Ensemble) 9,658 21.5 —
Manuela CHEVALIER Centre (Ensemble) 5,405 12.1 —
David GÉNITEAU Sovereignists 570 1.3 —
Camille PERCHET Far left 476 1.1 —
Daniel LECOMTE RN and allies 450 1.0 —
Didier DURANDY LR and allies 263 0.6 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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