Riding profile

Sarthe — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Sarthe

The question

Sarthe — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Sarthe — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Sarthe, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Julie DELPECH

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
58%
Mean margin (pts)
10.7
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.7%
  • Left (NFP) 24.1%
  • LR and allies 10.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereSarthe — 1ère circonscription 36.4%25.7%24.1%10.3%
Provincial averageSarthe 40.6% −4.2 24.2% +1.5 26.0% −1.8 9.9% +0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.5 20.6% +5.2 29.5% −5.3 12.2% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Céline DE COSSÉ BRISSAC RN and allies 16,465 33.6
Julie DELPECH Elected Centre (Ensemble) 15,111 30.8
Ghislaine BONNET Left (NFP) 12,258 25.0
Clément COULON LR and allies 4,459 9.1
Sylvie MAILLET Far left 710 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next