Riding profile
Sarthe — 5ème circonscription
The question
Sarthe — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Sarthe — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Sarthe, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Jean-Carles GRELIER
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Competitive
- Probability
- 92%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.9
- P(close race)
- 17%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Sovereignists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSarthe — 5ème circonscription | 41.0% | 26.2% | 25.8% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 40.6% +0.4 | 24.2% +2.0 | 26.0% −0.2 | 1.7% +0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +5.1 | 20.6% +5.6 | 29.5% −3.7 | 1.6% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre VAUGARNY | RN and allies | 21,870 | 38.2 | — |
| Jean-Carles GRELIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,898 | 31.3 | — |
| Christophe ROUILLON | Left (NFP) | 15,261 | 26.7 | — |
| Cécile BAYLE DE JESSÉ | Sovereignists | 1,285 | 2.3 | — |
| Karine FOUQUET | Far left | 899 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Orne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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