Riding profile

Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure-et-Loir

The question

Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure-et-Loir, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Harold HUWART

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.0%
  • LR and allies 13.8%
  • Far left 6.7%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies Far left
HereEure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription 46.5%31.0%13.8%6.7%
Provincial averageEure-et-Loir 43.5% +3.0 23.8% +7.2 12.6% +1.2 2.7% +4.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.5 20.6% +10.4 12.2% +1.6 1.1% +5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe BAY RN and allies 19,178 42.4
Harold HUWART Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,439 36.4
Rémi MARTIAL LR and allies 5,748 12.7
Vincent CHEVROLLIER Far left 3,107 6.9
Eric LAQUA RN and allies 751 1.7
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next