Riding profile
Eure — 1ère circonscription
The question
Eure — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Eure — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 23% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Christine LOIR
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEure — 1ère circonscription | 50.9% | 23.4% | 20.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure | 48.9% +2.0 | 20.0% +3.4 | 22.0% −1.3 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +14.9 | 20.6% +2.8 | 29.5% −8.8 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine LOIR Elected | RN and allies | 25,853 | 46.5 | — |
| Julien CANIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,837 | 28.5 | — |
| Christine LE BONTÉ | Left (NFP) | 11,991 | 21.6 | — |
| Anne DUCAMP | Far left | 1,009 | 1.8 | — |
| Jacques THALMANN | RN and allies | 866 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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