Riding profile
Eure — 4ème circonscription
The question
Eure — 4ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Eure — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Philippe BRUN
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 5%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEure — 4ème circonscription | 45.3% | 33.3% | 17.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure | 48.9% −3.6 | 22.0% +11.3 | 20.0% −2.9 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.3 | 29.5% +3.9 | 20.6% −3.5 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrice PAUPER | RN and allies | 25,691 | 41.6 | — |
| Philippe BRUN Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,144 | 34.3 | — |
| Anne TERLEZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,767 | 17.4 | — |
| Olivier ISTIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,868 | 4.7 | — |
| Christophe SOLAL | Far left | 693 | 1.1 | — |
| Stacy BLONDEL | RN and allies | 536 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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