Riding profile
Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription
The question
Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alma DUFOUR
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 6%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSeine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription | 43.3% | 31.7% | 19.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 39.3% +4.0 | 31.7% | 20.6% −0.9 | 1.4% +0.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.3 | 29.5% +2.2 | 20.6% −0.9 | 1.1% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume PENNELLE | RN and allies | 20,748 | 39.1 | — |
| Alma DUFOUR Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,335 | 32.6 | — |
| Laurent BONNATERRE | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,120 | 24.7 | — |
| Frédéric PODGUSZER | Far left | 1,152 | 2.2 | — |
| Ingrid LOSFELD | RN and allies | 736 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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