Riding profile
Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription
The question
Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gérard LESEUL
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.1
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSeine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription | 45.6% | 32.4% | 17.3% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 39.3% +6.3 | 31.7% +0.7 | 20.6% −3.3 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.6 | 29.5% +3.0 | 20.6% −3.3 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Cyril MONTIER | RN and allies | 26,406 | 41.4 | — |
| Gérard LESEUL Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,281 | 33.4 | — |
| Jean DELALANDRE | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,259 | 22.4 | — |
| Simon SULKOWSKI | Far left | 963 | 1.5 | — |
| Jean-Marc BLED | RN and allies | 880 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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