Riding profile

Eure — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure

The question

Eure — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Eure — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kévin MAUVIEUX

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.2%
  • Left (NFP) 15.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereEure — 3ème circonscription 52.8%27.2%15.1%2.0%
Provincial averageEure 48.9% +3.9 20.0% +7.2 22.0% −6.9 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.9 20.6% +6.6 29.5% −14.3 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+25.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kévin MAUVIEUX Elected RN and allies 28,012 48.9
Marie TAMARELLE VERHAEGHE Centre (Ensemble) 12,238 21.4
Jean-Christophe TURPIN Left (NFP) 9,147 16.0
Thomas ELEXHAUSER Centre (Ensemble) 6,259 10.9
Marie-Noëlle HUARD Far left 963 1.7
Didier DARIC RN and allies 691 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
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