Riding profile
Eure — 3ème circonscription
The question
Eure — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Eure — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kévin MAUVIEUX
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEure — 3ème circonscription | 52.8% | 27.2% | 15.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure | 48.9% +3.9 | 20.0% +7.2 | 22.0% −6.9 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +16.9 | 20.6% +6.6 | 29.5% −14.3 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin MAUVIEUX Elected | RN and allies | 28,012 | 48.9 | — |
| Marie TAMARELLE VERHAEGHE | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,238 | 21.4 | — |
| Jean-Christophe TURPIN | Left (NFP) | 9,147 | 16.0 | — |
| Thomas ELEXHAUSER | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,259 | 10.9 | — |
| Marie-Noëlle HUARD | Far left | 963 | 1.7 | — |
| Didier DARIC | RN and allies | 691 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Eure — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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