Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-Agnès POUSSIER-WINSBACK

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.6%
  • Left (NFP) 17.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.6%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereSeine-Maritime — 9ème circonscription 48.3%27.6%17.7%2.0%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 39.3% +9.0 20.6% +7.0 31.7% −14.0 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.3 20.6% +7.0 29.5% −11.8 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Douglas POTIER RN and allies 28,528 44.6 —
Marie-Agnès POUSSIER-WINSBACK Elected Centre (Ensemble) 20,528 32.1 —
Christiane ROUXEL Left (NFP) 11,845 18.5 —
René PINATO Far left 1,122 1.8 —
Patrick BUCOURT Sovereignists 967 1.5 —
Christophe ROS RN and allies 615 1.0 —
Aude DE CASTET Centre (Ensemble) 392 0.6 —
Solène MOREL Left (NFP) 1 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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