Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 7ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Agnès FIRMIN LE BODO

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
45%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
93%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 32.5%
  • Left (NFP) 30.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.7%
  • LR and allies 3.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 7ème circonscription 32.5%30.0%29.7%3.9%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 39.3% −6.8 31.7% −1.7 20.6% +9.1 6.6% −2.8
National averageFrance 36.0% −3.5 29.5% +0.5 20.6% +9.1 12.2% −8.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Agnès FIRMIN LE BODO Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,734 34.8 —
Anaïs THOMAS RN and allies 16,221 28.6 —
Florence MARTIN PÉRÉON Left (NFP) 16,211 28.6 —
Jacques FORESTIER LR and allies 1,489 2.6 —
Catherine OMONT Left (NFP) 1,292 2.3 —
Jean-Paul MACÉ Far left 610 1.1 —
Isabelle DUCOEURJOLY RN and allies 553 1.0 —
Véronique DE LA BROSSE Sovereignists 541 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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