Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Paul LECOQ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
7.7
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 41.8%
  • RN and allies 34.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.2%
  • LR and allies 4.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription 41.8%34.2%16.2%4.5%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 31.7% +10.1 39.3% −5.1 20.6% −4.4 6.6% −2.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +12.4 36.0% −1.8 20.6% −4.4 12.2% −7.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Paul LECOQ Elected Left (NFP) 16,205 42.8
Isabelle LE COZ RN and allies 11,855 31.3
Régis DEBONS Centre (Ensemble) 8,040 21.2
Benoit NAOUS LR and allies 1,245 3.3
Magali CAUCHOIS Far left 504 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
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