Riding profile
Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription
The question
Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jean-Paul LECOQ
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 3%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSeine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription | 41.8% | 34.2% | 16.2% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 31.7% +10.1 | 39.3% −5.1 | 20.6% −4.4 | 6.6% −2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +12.4 | 36.0% −1.8 | 20.6% −4.4 | 12.2% −7.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Paul LECOQ Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,205 | 42.8 | — |
| Isabelle LE COZ | RN and allies | 11,855 | 31.3 | — |
| Régis DEBONS | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,040 | 21.2 | — |
| Benoit NAOUS | LR and allies | 1,245 | 3.3 | — |
| Magali CAUCHOIS | Far left | 504 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Seine-Maritime — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Eure — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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