Riding profile

Calvados — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Calvados

The question

Calvados — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Calvados — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Calvados, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Christophe BLANCHET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.7%
  • Left (NFP) 18.9%
  • LR and allies 12.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereCalvados — 4ème circonscription 37.7%27.7%18.9%12.1%
Provincial averageCalvados 34.8% +2.9 23.8% +3.9 26.1% −7.2 15.1% −3.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.7 20.6% +7.1 29.5% −10.5 12.2% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chantal HENRY RN and allies 24,230 33.6 —
Christophe BLANCHET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,622 32.8 —
Pierre MOURARET Left (NFP) 14,247 19.8 —
Sophie GAUGAIN LR and allies 7,847 10.9 —
Pascale DEUTSCH RN and allies 878 1.2 —
François BUISSON Sovereignists 747 1.0 —
Patrick POIROT-BOURDAIN Far left 442 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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