Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 20% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Robert LE BOURGEOIS

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.5%
  • Left (NFP) 16.6%
  • LR and allies 9.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription 49.2%20.5%16.6%9.2%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 39.3% +10.0 20.6% −0.1 31.7% −15.1 6.6% +2.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.3 20.6% −0.1 29.5% −12.9 12.2% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Robert LE BOURGEOIS Elected RN and allies 34,431 45.3 —
Xavier BATUT Centre (Ensemble) 19,420 25.6 —
Handy BARRÉ Left (NFP) 13,254 17.4 —
Jean Nicolas ROUSSEAU LR and allies 6,089 8.0 —
Alain RIVIÈRE Far left 1,033 1.4 —
Nicolas DUMAS RN and allies 901 1.2 —
Rémy LECUYER Sovereignists 890 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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