Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Edouard BÉNARD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 47.6%
  • RN and allies 32.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.8%
  • LR and allies 7.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription 47.6%32.4%8.8%7.6%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 31.7% +15.9 39.3% −6.9 20.6% −11.8 6.6% +1.0
National averageFrance 29.5% +18.1 36.0% −3.6 20.6% −11.8 12.2% −4.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edouard BÉNARD Elected Left (NFP) 21,000 48.6 —
Pauline DANIEL RN and allies 12,194 28.2 —
Letycia OSSIBI Centre (Ensemble) 5,951 13.8 —
Alexis COPPEIN LR and allies 2,757 6.4 —
Pascal LE MANACH Far left 705 1.6 —
Anthony VANHESE RN and allies 566 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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