Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 2ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Annie VIDAL

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
14.0
P(close race)
18%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.5%
  • Left (NFP) 23.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.6%
  • LR and allies 12.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 2ème circonscription 37.5%23.6%22.6%12.0%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 39.3% −1.7 31.7% −8.1 20.6% +2.1 6.6% +5.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.6 29.5% −5.9 20.6% +2.1 12.2% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vanessa LANCELOT RN and allies 23,135 33.8 —
Annie VIDAL Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,996 27.7 —
Vincent DECORDE Left (NFP) 16,753 24.5 —
Jonas HADDAD LR and allies 7,429 10.8 —
Jean-Claude GARAULT Far left 877 1.3 —
Marie-Françoise ACCARD Sovereignists 666 1.0 —
Frédéric MAZIER RN and allies 643 0.9 —
Soren PETIOT Left (NFP) 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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