Riding profile

Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Maritime

The question

Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Maritime, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 23% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Florence HEROUIN-LÉAUTEY

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.7%
  • RN and allies 22.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.8%
  • LR and allies 7.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription 43.7%22.9%22.8%7.0%
Provincial averageSeine-Maritime 31.7% +12.0 39.3% −16.3 20.6% +2.2 6.6% +0.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +14.2 36.0% −13.0 20.6% +2.2 12.2% −5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Florence HEROUIN-LÉAUTEY Elected Left (NFP) 20,040 44.4 —
Damien ADAM Centre (Ensemble) 12,456 27.6 —
Grégoire HOUDAN RN and allies 8,567 19.0 —
Patrick CHABERT LR and allies 2,606 5.8 —
Christian SAVEY RN and allies 465 1.0 —
Valérie FOISSEY Far left 454 1.0 —
Marie-Hélène DUVERGER Far left 271 0.6 —
Jody HORCHOLLE Centre (Ensemble) 122 0.3 —
Richard VACQUER Left (NFP) 111 0.3 —
Mikhail STACHKOV Others 3 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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