Riding profile

Eure — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure

The question

Eure — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Eure — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Timothée HOUSSIN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.0%
  • Left (NFP) 20.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.3%
  • LR and allies 8.3%
  • Others 2.9%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereEure — 5ème circonscription 48.0%20.4%19.3%8.3%
Provincial averageEure 48.9% −0.9 22.0% −1.6 20.0% −0.7 5.6% +2.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.1 29.5% −9.1 20.6% −1.2 12.2% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Timothée HOUSSIN Elected RN and allies 26,603 45.3 —
Frédéric DUCHÉ Centre (Ensemble) 14,333 24.4 —
Pierre-Yves JOURDAIN Left (NFP) 12,506 21.3 —
David DAVERTON LR and allies 3,233 5.5 —
Christian MAZURE LR and allies 911 1.6 —
Delphine BLITMAN Far left 671 1.1 —
Ludovic BEAUJOUAN Others 517 0.9 —
Colin PRÉVOTEAU DU CLARY LR and allies 2 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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