Riding profile

Eure — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure

The question

Eure — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Eure — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Katiana LEVAVASSEUR

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.4%
  • Left (NFP) 20.4%
  • LR and allies 16.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereEure — 2ème circonscription 47.4%20.4%16.1%13.0%
Provincial averageEure 48.9% −1.5 22.0% −1.6 5.6% +10.5 20.0% −7.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.5 29.5% −9.1 12.2% +3.9 20.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Katiana LEVAVASSEUR Elected RN and allies 22,952 43.6 —
Timour VEYRI Left (NFP) 11,185 21.3 —
Isabelle COLLIN Centre (Ensemble) 9,225 17.5 —
Stéphanie AUGER LR and allies 6,202 11.8 —
Edouard BAUDE LR and allies 1,658 3.1 —
Mélanie PEYRAUD Far left 614 1.2 —
Laurence BRÉLY RN and allies 558 1.1 —
Laure Anne GODARD Centre (Ensemble) 242 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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