Riding profile

Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Eure-et-Loir

The question

Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Eure-et-Loir, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 27% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Olivier MARLEIX

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.1%
  • LR and allies 27.0%
  • Left (NFP) 24.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 2.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereEure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription 42.1%27.0%24.7%2.3%
Provincial averageEure-et-Loir 43.5% −1.4 12.6% +14.4 20.5% +4.3 23.8% −21.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.2 12.2% +14.8 29.5% −4.8 20.6% −18.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olivier DUBOIS RN and allies 17,908 38.3 —
Olivier MARLEIX Elected LR and allies 12,109 25.9 —
Nadia FAVERIS Left (NFP) 11,956 25.6 —
Florent MAZY Centre (Ensemble) 3,381 7.2 —
Béatrice JAFFRENOU Far left 535 1.1 —
Florence ROGÉ RN and allies 477 1.0 —
Adrien DENIS Far left 357 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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