Riding profile
Loir-et-Cher — 3ème circonscription
The question
Loir-et-Cher — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Loir-et-Cher — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loir-et-Cher, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Christophe MARION
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Competitive
- Probability
- 91%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.1
- P(close race)
- 17%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoir-et-Cher — 3ème circonscription | 45.2% | 31.1% | 18.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoir-et-Cher | 45.5% −0.3 | 32.9% −1.8 | 17.0% +1.7 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.2 | 20.6% +10.5 | 29.5% −10.8 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia DE OLIVEIRA | RN and allies | 22,682 | 41.1 | — |
| Christophe MARION Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,014 | 36.2 | — |
| Noé PETIT | Left (NFP) | 10,795 | 19.6 | — |
| Claude LAMY | Far left | 986 | 1.8 | — |
| Alexandre BONNASSIEUX | RN and allies | 748 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Indre-et-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next