Riding profile

Orne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Orne

The question

Orne — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Orne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Orne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Véronique LOUWAGIE

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
78%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.9%
  • LR and allies 34.0%
  • Left (NFP) 15.9%
  • Others 2.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereOrne — 2ème circonscription 43.9%34.0%15.9%2.1%
Provincial averageOrne 39.1% +4.7 26.1% +7.9 20.6% −4.6 2.0% +0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.9 12.2% +21.8 29.5% −13.5 3.9% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gérard VIENNE RN and allies 17,502 40.0 —
Véronique LOUWAGIE Elected LR and allies 14,411 33.0 —
Guillaume SACRISTE Left (NFP) 7,336 16.8 —
Amale EL KHALEDI Centre (Ensemble) 3,060 7.0 —
Bernadette VELLY Far left 470 1.1 —
Séverine PREHU Sovereignists 456 1.0 —
Raymond HERBRETEAU RN and allies 455 1.0 —
Patrick LEVACHER Others 49 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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