Riding profile

Manche — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Manche

The question

Manche — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Manche — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Manche, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 40% vote share, against 37% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe GOSSELIN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 39.8%
  • RN and allies 36.6%
  • Left (NFP) 17.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereManche — 1ère circonscription 39.8%36.6%17.6%3.1%
Provincial averageManche 16.7% +23.1 36.2% +0.4 21.7% −4.1 19.7% −16.7
National averageFrance 12.2% +27.6 36.0% +0.6 29.5% −11.9 20.6% −17.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe GOSSELIN Elected LR and allies 22,513 38.3 —
Franck SIMON RN and allies 19,333 32.9 —
Guillaume HEDOUIN Left (NFP) 10,792 18.4 —
Michaël MASSON Centre (Ensemble) 4,723 8.0 —
Olivia LEWI Far left 578 1.0 —
Laurent BESAGNY RN and allies 418 0.7 —
Baptiste RAJAUT Greens 250 0.4 —
Jacques POISSON LR and allies 171 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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