Riding profile
Manche — 4ème circonscription
The question
Manche — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Manche — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Manche, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 34% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Anna PIC
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 64%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 73%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereManche — 4ème circonscription | 34.4% | 33.3% | 16.0% | 12.9% |
| Provincial averageManche | 36.2% −1.8 | 21.7% +11.6 | 16.7% −0.7 | 19.7% −6.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% −1.6 | 29.5% +3.8 | 12.2% +3.8 | 20.6% −7.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna PIC Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,940 | 34.2 | — |
| Nicolas CONQUER | RN and allies | 17,481 | 30.0 | — |
| Yann LEPETIT | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,417 | 17.9 | — |
| Camille MARGUERITTE | LR and allies | 8,637 | 14.8 | — |
| Abdelkader BENRAMDANE | Far left | 900 | 1.5 | — |
| Yann DA CRUZ-LEGELEUX | RN and allies | 884 | 1.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Manche — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Manche — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Manche — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 7ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Calvados — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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