Riding profile

Manche — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Manche

The question

Manche — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Manche — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Manche, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bertrand SORRE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 34.8%
  • Left (NFP) 16.5%
  • LR and allies 9.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereManche — 2ème circonscription 35.8%34.8%16.5%9.8%
Provincial averageManche 36.2% −0.4 19.7% +15.0 21.7% −5.2 16.7% −6.9
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.2 20.6% +14.2 29.5% −13.0 12.2% −2.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bertrand SORRE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,555 39.9 —
Marie-Françoise KURDZIEL RN and allies 21,186 31.8 —
Patrick GRIMBERT Left (NFP) 11,529 17.3 —
Julie BARENTON GUILLAS LR and allies 5,739 8.6 —
Mai TRAN Far left 811 1.2 —
Hervé RETAILLEAU RN and allies 721 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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