Riding profile

Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ille-et-Vilaine

The question

Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ille-et-Vilaine, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tristan LAHAIS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.2%
  • RN and allies 20.4%
  • LR and allies 8.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereIlle-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription 39.4%29.2%20.4%8.1%
Provincial averageIlle-et-Vilaine 33.9% +5.5 27.8% +1.3 27.7% −7.4 10.1% −2.0
National averageFrance 29.5% +9.9 20.6% +8.6 36.0% −15.6 12.2% −4.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tristan LAHAIS Elected Left (NFP) 30,361 40.3 —
Laurence MAILLART-MÉHAIGNERIE Centre (Ensemble) 25,792 34.2 —
Bérénice VANHAECKE RN and allies 13,130 17.4 —
Christophe DECOURCELLE LR and allies 5,218 6.9 —
Florence DEFRANCE Far left 746 1.0 —
Olivier HANNE Greens 71 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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