Riding profile
Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription
The question
Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ille-et-Vilaine, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 37% vote share, against 33% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Christine LE NABOUR
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereIlle-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription | 37.3% | 32.7% | 25.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageIlle-et-Vilaine | 27.8% +9.4 | 27.7% +4.9 | 33.9% −8.9 | 2.5% −0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +16.7 | 36.0% −3.3 | 29.5% −4.5 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine LE NABOUR Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 33,147 | 42.4 | — |
| Françoise GILOIS | RN and allies | 23,298 | 29.8 | — |
| Gilles RENAULT | Left (NFP) | 20,199 | 25.9 | — |
| Christelle JARNY | Far left | 1,494 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire-Atlantique — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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