Riding profile

Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Ille-et-Vilaine

The question

Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Ille-et-Vilaine, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie MESMEUR

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 15.1
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 41.9%
Centre (Ensemble) 26.8%
RN and allies 20.6%
LR and allies 6.2%
Others 3.3%
Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	LR and allies
HereIlle-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription	41.9%	26.8%	20.6%	6.2%
Provincial averageIlle-et-Vilaine	33.9% +8.0	27.8% −1.0	27.7% −7.2	10.1% −3.9
National averageFrance	29.5% +12.4	20.6% +6.2	36.0% −15.4	12.2% −6.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+15.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Marie MESMEUR Elected	Left (NFP)	28,467	42.3	—
Nicolas BOUCHER	Centre (Ensemble)	21,453	31.9	—
Jeanne REY DU BOISSIEU	RN and allies	11,878	17.6	—
Joëlle LE GALL	LR and allies	3,372	5.0	—
Sébastien GIRARD	Others	887	1.3	—
Valérie HAMON	Far left	875	1.3	—
Rosa VASQUEZ	Left (NFP)	347	0.5	—
Frédéric MATHIEU	Left (NFP)	8	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next