Riding profile

Manche — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Manche

The question

Manche — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Manche — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Manche, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stéphane TRAVERT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.3%
  • Left (NFP) 19.3%
  • Others 11.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereManche — 3ème circonscription 38.0%28.3%19.3%11.2%
Provincial averageManche 36.2% +1.8 19.7% +8.5 21.7% −2.4 4.3% +6.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.1 20.6% +7.7 29.5% −10.2 3.9% +7.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre GIRY RN and allies 25,725 33.9 —
Stéphane TRAVERT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 25,232 33.2 —
Gaëlle VEROVE Left (NFP) 15,191 20.0 —
Stéphanie MAUBÉ Others 6,951 9.2 —
Yohann QUESNEL Sovereignists 945 1.2 —
Christian GUYOT RN and allies 842 1.1 —
Mansour AYOUTI Far left 629 0.8 —
Aurélien VERLEYEN Greens 389 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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