Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Naïma MOUTCHOU

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 33.9%
  • RN and allies 29.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.9%
  • LR and allies 7.2%
  • Greens 3.6%
  • Others 2.1%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription 33.9%29.3%22.9%7.2%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% −5.8 29.6% −0.3 17.3% +5.7 10.4% −3.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +4.4 36.0% −6.7 20.6% +2.4 12.2% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karine LACOUTURE Left (NFP) 17,498 34.6 —
Naïma MOUTCHOU Elected Centre (Ensemble) 14,084 27.9 —
Sébastien MEURANT RN and allies 13,238 26.2 —
Inthone RODSPHON LR and allies 3,003 6.0 —
Grégory BERTHAULT Greens 2,132 4.2 —
Marie-Françoise L'HOMMEDET Far left 485 1.0 —
Robin DURAND Others 52 0.1 —
Antonin MARTIN Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next