Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 37% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gabrielle CATHALA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 36.7%
  • RN and allies 26.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 23.4%
  • LR and allies 8.8%
  • Others 4.1%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 6ème circonscription 36.7%26.4%23.4%8.8%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% −3.1 29.6% −3.2 17.3% +6.1 10.4% −1.6
National averageFrance 29.5% +7.2 36.0% −9.6 20.6% +2.8 12.2% −3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gabrielle CATHALA Elected Left (NFP) 18,603 37.6 —
Estelle FOLEST Centre (Ensemble) 12,745 25.8 —
Annika BRUNA RN and allies 10,911 22.1 —
Audrey GUILBAUD LR and allies 3,737 7.6 —
Loïc ELÉLOUÉ-VALMAR Others 1,049 2.1 —
Emmanuel MIKAEL Centre (Ensemble) 910 1.8 —
Jean Bernard LASMARRIGUES RN and allies 683 1.4 —
Christophe CELESTIN Centre (Ensemble) 427 0.9 —
Agnès REINMANN Far left 370 0.8 —
Marine DAGEVILLE Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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