Riding profile
Loiret — 3ème circonscription
The question
Loiret — 3ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Loiret — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loiret, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Constance DE PÉLICHY
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.1
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoiret — 3ème circonscription | 47.6% | 31.5% | 17.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageLoiret | 42.3% +5.3 | 11.9% +19.6 | 24.5% −6.9 | 2.4% −0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +11.7 | 12.2% +19.3 | 29.5% −11.8 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathilde PARIS | RN and allies | 21,373 | 45.5 | — |
| Constance DE PÉLICHY Elected | LR and allies | 15,041 | 32.0 | — |
| Clément VERDE | Left (NFP) | 9,089 | 19.4 | — |
| Thomas MAURICE | RN and allies | 792 | 1.7 | — |
| Michel NAULIN | Far left | 648 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loiret — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Cher — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Loiret — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Cher — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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