Riding profile
Yonne — 1ère circonscription
The question
Yonne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Yonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Yonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Daniel GRENON
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYonne — 1ère circonscription | 44.3% | 24.5% | 15.6% | 12.5% |
| Provincial averageYonne | 49.1% −4.8 | 22.6% +1.8 | 7.3% +8.2 | 16.4% −4.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +8.3 | 29.5% −5.0 | 12.2% +3.3 | 20.6% −8.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel GRENON Elected | RN and allies | 20,486 | 40.4 | — |
| Florence LOURY | Left (NFP) | 12,851 | 25.3 | — |
| Victor ALBRECHT | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,871 | 17.5 | — |
| Céline BÄHR | LR and allies | 7,303 | 14.4 | — |
| Sylvie MANIGAUT | Far left | 654 | 1.3 | — |
| Jean-Christophe LETIERCE | RN and allies | 542 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Yonne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loiret — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Yonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nièvre — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nièvre — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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