Riding profile

Yonne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Yonne

The question

Yonne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Yonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Yonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daniel GRENON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.3%
  • Left (NFP) 24.5%
  • LR and allies 15.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereYonne — 1ère circonscription 44.3%24.5%15.6%12.5%
Provincial averageYonne 49.1% −4.8 22.6% +1.8 7.3% +8.2 16.4% −4.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.3 29.5% −5.0 12.2% +3.3 20.6% −8.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daniel GRENON Elected RN and allies 20,486 40.4
Florence LOURY Left (NFP) 12,851 25.3
Victor ALBRECHT Centre (Ensemble) 8,871 17.5
Céline BÄHR LR and allies 7,303 14.4
Sylvie MANIGAUT Far left 654 1.3
Jean-Christophe LETIERCE RN and allies 542 1.1
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next