Riding profile

Nièvre — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nièvre

The question

Nièvre — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nièvre — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nièvre, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julien GUIBERT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.6%
  • Left (NFP) 25.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.4%
  • LR and allies 6.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereNièvre — 2ème circonscription 47.6%25.5%15.4%6.5%
Provincial averageNièvre 45.6% +2.0 23.0% +2.5 19.9% −4.4 6.5%
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.6 29.5% −4.0 20.6% −5.2 12.2% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien GUIBERT Elected RN and allies 23,481 44.8 —
Christian PAUL Left (NFP) 13,788 26.3 —
Sandra GERMAIN Centre (Ensemble) 10,708 20.4 —
Marc Alexandre VINCENT LR and allies 2,757 5.3 —
Dominique DUPUIS Far left 839 1.6 —
Aurore MUNOZ Sovereignists 801 1.5 —
Justine GUYOT Left (NFP) 9 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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