Riding profile

Allier — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Allier

The question

Allier — 1ère circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Allier — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Allier, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yannick MONNET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.4%
  • Left (NFP) 27.9%
  • LR and allies 16.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereAllier — 1ère circonscription 42.4%27.9%16.7%9.9%
Provincial averageAllier 39.8% +2.7 23.3% +4.7 27.8% −11.1 8.7% +1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.5 29.5% −1.5 12.2% +4.5 20.6% −10.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anne-Marie THÈS RN and allies 22,816 38.6 —
Yannick MONNET Elected Left (NFP) 17,043 28.8 —
Stephane LARZAT Centre (Ensemble) 8,811 14.9 —
Alexandra BARDET LR and allies 7,889 13.3 —
Jean-Marie GUILLAUMIN LR and allies 1,303 2.2 —
Jean-Marc COLLOT Far left 636 1.1 —
Blandine AGEZ RN and allies 602 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next