Riding profile

Allier — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Allier

The question

Allier — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Allier — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Allier, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jorys BOVET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
59%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.1%
  • LR and allies 27.6%
  • Left (NFP) 23.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 7.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereAllier — 2ème circonscription 38.1%27.6%23.2%7.6%
Provincial averageAllier 39.8% −1.6 27.8% −0.2 23.3% −0.1 8.7% −1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.2 12.2% +15.4 29.5% −6.3 20.6% −13.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jorys BOVET Elected RN and allies 17,810 34.3
Louise HERITIER Left (NFP) 12,482 24.1
Romain LEFEBVRE LR and allies 10,204 19.7
Laurence VANCEUNEBROCK Centre (Ensemble) 6,524 12.6
Nicolas ROUSSEAUX LR and allies 3,548 6.8
Bernard LEBEL Far left 802 1.6
Alice GONÇALVES RN and allies 511 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next