Riding profile
Allier — 2ème circonscription
The question
Allier — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Allier — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Allier, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jorys BOVET
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 59%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.6
- P(close race)
- 82%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAllier — 2ème circonscription | 38.1% | 27.6% | 23.2% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageAllier | 39.8% −1.6 | 27.8% −0.2 | 23.3% −0.1 | 8.7% −1.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +2.2 | 12.2% +15.4 | 29.5% −6.3 | 20.6% −13.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorys BOVET Elected | RN and allies | 17,810 | 34.3 | — |
| Louise HERITIER | Left (NFP) | 12,482 | 24.1 | — |
| Romain LEFEBVRE | LR and allies | 10,204 | 19.7 | — |
| Laurence VANCEUNEBROCK | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,524 | 12.6 | — |
| Nicolas ROUSSEAUX | LR and allies | 3,548 | 6.8 | — |
| Bernard LEBEL | Far left | 802 | 1.6 | — |
| Alice GONÇALVES | RN and allies | 511 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Puy-de-Dôme — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Cher — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Allier — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Creuse — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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