Riding profile
Creuse — 1ère circonscription
The question
Creuse — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Creuse — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Creuse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 23% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Bartolomé LENOIR
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 67%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.8
- P(close race)
- 65%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCreuse — 1ère circonscription | 37.0% | 23.2% | 22.6% | 12.4% |
| Provincial averageCreuse | 37.0% | 23.2% | 22.6% | 12.4% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +1.0 | 12.2% +11.0 | 29.5% −6.9 | 20.6% −8.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolomé LENOIR Elected | RN and allies | 20,403 | 33.4 | — |
| Catherine COUTURIER | Left (NFP) | 14,359 | 23.5 | — |
| Valérie SIMONET | LR and allies | 13,536 | 22.1 | — |
| Jean-Baptiste MOREAU | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,670 | 17.4 | — |
| Catherine DUMON | Far left | 958 | 1.6 | — |
| Florence VERHEYEN VALADE | Others | 763 | 1.3 | — |
| Ana PINSON | RN and allies | 493 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Haute-Vienne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Corrèze — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Vienne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Indre — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Allier — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next