Riding profile
Nièvre — 1ère circonscription
The question
Nièvre — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Nièvre — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Nièvre, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Perrine GOULET
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.3
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNièvre — 1ère circonscription | 43.6% | 24.3% | 20.5% | 6.6% |
| Provincial averageNièvre | 45.6% −2.0 | 19.9% +4.4 | 23.0% −2.5 | 6.5% +0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.6 | 20.6% +3.7 | 29.5% −9.0 | 12.2% −5.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles-Henri GALLOIS | RN and allies | 18,870 | 40.8 | — |
| Perrine GOULET Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,593 | 29.4 | — |
| Brice LARÈPE | Left (NFP) | 9,856 | 21.3 | — |
| Baptiste DUBOST | LR and allies | 2,482 | 5.4 | — |
| Geneviève LEMOINE | Far left | 809 | 1.8 | — |
| Chantal VARELA | Sovereignists | 628 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nièvre — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Yonne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Allier — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Cher — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Cher — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Yonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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