Riding profile
Allier — 3ème circonscription
The question
Allier — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Allier — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Allier, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 39% vote share, against 39% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nicolas RAY
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.4
- P(close race)
- 7%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAllier — 3ème circonscription | 39.1% | 38.7% | 18.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAllier | 27.8% +11.3 | 39.8% −1.0 | 23.3% −4.6 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +26.9 | 36.0% +2.8 | 29.5% −10.8 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas RAY Elected | LR and allies | 21,464 | 40.0 | — |
| Rémy QUENEY | RN and allies | 20,270 | 37.8 | — |
| Aline JEUDI | Left (NFP) | 10,935 | 20.4 | — |
| Jean-François RAMEAU | Far left | 923 | 1.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Allier — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 5ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Puy-de-Dôme — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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