Riding profile
Loire — 5ème circonscription
The question
Loire — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Loire — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 41% vote share, against 38% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Antoine VERMOREL-MARQUES
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 4%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoire — 5ème circonscription | 41.2% | 38.4% | 16.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 21.6% +19.6 | 38.6% −0.2 | 27.8% −11.0 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +29.0 | 36.0% +2.5 | 29.5% −12.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine VERMOREL-MARQUES Elected | LR and allies | 29,832 | 42.0 | — |
| Sandrine GRANGER | RN and allies | 25,644 | 36.1 | — |
| Ismaël STEVENSON | Left (NFP) | 13,039 | 18.4 | — |
| Florence NAYME | Greens | 956 | 1.4 | — |
| Edith ROCHE | Far left | 726 | 1.0 | — |
| Robert LACHAUD | RN and allies | 614 | 0.9 | — |
| Yann ESTEVENY | RN and allies | 239 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loire — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Rhône — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Allier — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Rhône — 9ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Rhône — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next