Riding profile

Rhône — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 9ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rhône — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 27% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alexandre PORTIER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
11.7
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.2%
  • LR and allies 26.5%
  • Left (NFP) 22.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.4%
  • Others 2.9%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereRhône — 9ème circonscription 38.2%26.5%22.4%9.4%
Provincial averageRhône 29.2% +9.1 12.4% +14.1 36.0% −13.6 20.4% −11.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.3 12.2% +14.3 29.5% −7.1 20.6% −11.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patrick LOUIS RN and allies 24,466 35.4 —
Alexandre PORTIER Elected LR and allies 17,554 25.4 —
Jean-Henri SOUMIREU-LARTIGUE Left (NFP) 16,066 23.3 —
Antoine LAURENT Centre (Ensemble) 9,935 14.4 —
Damien D'AUTRYVE Others 613 0.9 —
Chantal HELLY Far left 464 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next