Riding profile

Ain — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ain

The question

Ain — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Ain — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ain, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jérôme BUISSON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.8%
  • Left (NFP) 19.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.8%
  • LR and allies 12.1%
  • Others 2.1%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAin — 4ème circonscription 48.8%19.1%16.8%12.1%
Provincial averageAin 42.7% +6.1 22.5% −3.3 15.4% +1.5 15.8% −3.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.8 29.5% −10.4 20.6% −3.7 12.2% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+29.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jérôme BUISSON Elected RN and allies 30,221 46.0
Christophe COQUELET Centre (Ensemble) 14,367 21.9
Charline LIOTIER Left (NFP) 13,113 20.0
Guy BILLOUDET LR and allies 7,179 10.9
Sylvain COUSSON Far left 705 1.1
Jérémy NICAUD Others 85 0.1
Yannick BRESSON Others 17 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
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