Riding profile

Ain — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ain

The question

Ain — 2ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Ain — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ain, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 23% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Romain DAUBIÉ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.6%
  • Left (NFP) 22.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.2%
  • LR and allies 10.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAin — 2ème circonscription 44.6%22.8%19.2%10.6%
Provincial averageAin 42.7% +1.9 22.5% +0.3 15.4% +3.8 15.8% −5.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.6 29.5% −6.7 20.6% −1.4 12.2% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andréa KOTARAC RN and allies 28,189 39.2 —
Romain DAUBIÉ Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,414 24.2 —
Maxime MEYER Left (NFP) 16,981 23.6 —
Alexandre NANCHI LR and allies 6,737 9.4 —
Olivier EYRAUD RN and allies 1,863 2.6 —
Vincent GOUTAGNY Far left 734 1.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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