Riding profile

Ain — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Ain

The question

Ain — 1ère circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Ain — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Ain, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 25% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Xavier BRETON

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
17.1
P(close race)
14%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.2%
  • LR and allies 25.1%
  • Left (NFP) 22.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 6.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 0.9%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereAin — 1ère circonscription 42.2%25.1%22.6%6.7%
Provincial averageAin 42.7% −0.5 15.8% +9.3 22.5% +0.1 15.4% −8.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.2 12.2% +12.8 29.5% −6.9 20.6% −13.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe MAÎTRE RN and allies 23,819 39.4 —
Xavier BRETON Elected LR and allies 14,495 24.0 —
Sébastien GUERAUD Left (NFP) 14,188 23.4 —
Vincent GUILLERMIN Centre (Ensemble) 7,063 11.7 —
Éric LAHY Far left 419 0.7 —
Michael MENDES Sovereignists 314 0.5 —
Cyril VINCENT Sovereignists 197 0.3 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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