Riding profile

Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Saône-et-Loire

The question

Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Saône-et-Loire, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eric MICHOUX

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.9%
  • Left (NFP) 27.7%
  • LR and allies 22.3%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.8%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Others
HereSaône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription 44.9%27.7%22.3%1.9%
Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire 41.3% +3.6 22.4% +5.3 18.9% +3.5 2.0% −0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.9 29.5% −1.8 12.2% +10.1 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric MICHOUX Elected RN and allies 24,275 44.3
Cécile UNTERMAIER Left (NFP) 16,403 30.0
Anthony VADOT LR and allies 12,222 22.3
Claude COURATIER Far left 1,115 2.0
Véronique BELLEST Sovereignists 728 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
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