Riding profile

Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Saône-et-Loire

The question

Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Saône-et-Loire, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 22% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Arnaud SANVERT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.0%
  • Left (NFP) 22.4%
  • LR and allies 20.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereSaône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription 38.0%22.4%20.4%15.7%
Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire 41.3% −3.3 22.4% +0.1 18.9% +1.5 16.5% −0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.0 29.5% −7.1 12.2% +8.2 20.6% −4.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arnaud SANVERT Elected RN and allies 19,807 35.1 —
Fatima KOURICHE Left (NFP) 13,130 23.3 —
Louis MARGUERITTE Centre (Ensemble) 11,699 20.7 —
Gilles PLATRET LR and allies 10,746 19.1 —
Pascal DUFRAIGNE Far left 888 1.6 —
Alain CADIOT LR and allies 125 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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