Riding profile

Saône-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Saône-et-Loire

The question

Saône-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Saône-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Saône-et-Loire, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 20% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aurélien DUTREMBLE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 25.4
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 45.5%
Centre (Ensemble) 20.0%
Left (NFP) 18.3%
LR and allies 11.1%
Others 2.3%
Sovereignists 1.5%
Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	LR and allies
HereSaône-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription	45.5%	20.0%	18.3%	11.1%
Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire	41.3% +4.2	16.5% +3.5	22.4% −4.1	18.9% −7.8
National averageFrance	36.0% +9.5	20.6% −0.5	29.5% −11.2	12.2% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+25.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Aurélien DUTREMBLE Elected	RN and allies	23,130	42.7	—
Rémy REBEYROTTE	Centre (Ensemble)	13,606	25.1	—
Richard BENINGER	Left (NFP)	10,375	19.1	—
Charles LANDRE	LR and allies	5,384	9.9	—
France ROBERT	Sovereignists	783	1.4	—
Julie LUCOTTE	Far left	730	1.4	—
José Antonio GRANADO	Others	193	0.4	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next