Riding profile

Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Saône-et-Loire

The question

Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Saône-et-Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Benjamin DIRX

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
78%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.5%
  • Left (NFP) 26.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.5%
  • LR and allies 5.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.7%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSaône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription 37.5%26.7%25.5%5.9%
Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire 41.3% −3.8 22.4% +4.3 16.5% +9.0 18.9% −13.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.5 29.5% −2.8 20.6% +4.9 12.2% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel DREVET RN and allies 17,602 34.6 —
Benjamin DIRX Elected Centre (Ensemble) 15,546 30.6 —
Jean-Luc DELPEUCH Left (NFP) 14,017 27.6 —
Jean-Philippe BELVILLE LR and allies 2,368 4.7 —
Jean-Armand ROY Sovereignists 836 1.6 —
Christophe SPRINGAUX Far left 429 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next