Riding profile
Jura — 1ère circonscription
The question
Jura — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Jura — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Jura, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Danielle BRULEBOIS
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 58%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 84%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJura — 1ère circonscription | 41.8% | 31.0% | 22.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageJura | 39.1% +2.7 | 31.0% | 22.4% −0.2 | 1.9% +0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +5.9 | 20.6% +10.5 | 29.5% −7.3 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valérie GRABY | RN and allies | 17,517 | 39.0 | — |
| Danielle BRULEBOIS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,231 | 36.2 | — |
| Anthony BRONDEL | Left (NFP) | 10,352 | 23.1 | — |
| Johanne MOREL | Far left | 786 | 1.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Jura — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Jura — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Ain — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ain — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ain — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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