Riding profile
Jura — 2ème circonscription
The question
Jura — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Jura — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Jura, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marie-Christine DALLOZ
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 3%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJura — 2ème circonscription | 37.8% | 34.9% | 22.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageJura | 24.2% +13.5 | 39.1% −4.2 | 22.4% +0.3 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +25.5 | 36.0% −1.1 | 29.5% −6.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Christine DALLOZ Elected | LR and allies | 14,507 | 38.6 | — |
| Thierry MOSCA | RN and allies | 12,315 | 32.8 | — |
| Evelyne TERNANT | Left (NFP) | 9,303 | 24.8 | — |
| Patrick LANCON | Sovereignists | 694 | 1.9 | — |
| André BIGOT | RN and allies | 390 | 1.0 | — |
| Christian MARCHET | Far left | 386 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Jura — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Jura — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Ain — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Doubs — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Ain — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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