Riding profile

Jura — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Jura

The question

Jura — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Jura — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Jura, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-Christine DALLOZ

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 37.8%
  • RN and allies 34.9%
  • Left (NFP) 22.8%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Sovereignists 1.8%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereJura — 2ème circonscription 37.8%34.9%22.8%1.9%
Provincial averageJura 24.2% +13.5 39.1% −4.2 22.4% +0.3 1.9%
National averageFrance 12.2% +25.5 36.0% −1.1 29.5% −6.7 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Christine DALLOZ Elected LR and allies 14,507 38.6
Thierry MOSCA RN and allies 12,315 32.8
Evelyne TERNANT Left (NFP) 9,303 24.8
Patrick LANCON Sovereignists 694 1.9
André BIGOT RN and allies 390 1.0
Christian MARCHET Far left 386 1.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next